Rest of Season Projection
KevinCategoryMark
33K →46
3.69ERA ←3.74
1.24WHIP1.24
3–7W ←0–0
1–6SV →5–9
Current Season
KevinCategoryMark
19K →25
2.67ERA ←5.47
0.81WHIP ←1.46
3W ←0
2SV →4
What Each Player's System Trusts
Kevin Kelly
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.211 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.53 is 0.86 above the ERA — regression coming
Mark Leiter Jr.
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.361 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Kevin Kelly: 33 K / 3.69 ERA. Mark Leiter Jr.: 46 K / 3.74 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).