Rest of Season Projection
NathanCategoryTristan
4HR →6
25R →34
28RBI ←26
0SB →7
.313AVG ←.249
Current Season
NathanCategoryTristan
0HR →2
8R →18
9RBI →14
0SB →4
.301AVG ←.295
What Each Player's System Trusts
Nathan Lukes
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.331)
Tristan Peters
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.359 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.290 is 0.051 below the surface — regression coming
Nathan Lukes: 4 HR / 25 R. Tristan Peters: 6 HR / 34 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).