Rest of Season Projection
OneilCategoryTristan
19HR ←6
63R ←35
61RBI ←27
28SB ←8
.242AVG →.248
Current Season
OneilCategoryTristan
13HR ←2
42R ←18
41RBI ←14
19SB ←4
.255AVG →.295
What Each Player's System Trusts
Oneil Cruz
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.353, +0.038 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 35% is stable and high — caps the floor
Tristan Peters
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.363 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.291 is 0.053 below the surface — regression coming
Oneil Cruz: 19 HR / 63 R. Tristan Peters: 6 HR / 35 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).