Rest of Season Projection
PaulCategorySteven
126K ←81
2.28ERA ←4.49
1.04WHIP ←1.32
6–14W ←6–12
0SV0
Current Season
PaulCategorySteven
75K ←35
2.89ERA ←4.67
0.86WHIP ←1.24
6W ←4
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Paul Skenes
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.28, 1.82 below league — production is earned
Steven Matz
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.85 is 0.37 above the ERA — regression coming
Paul Skenes: 126 K / 2.28 ERA. Steven Matz: 81 K / 4.49 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).