Rest of Season Projection
PJCategoryTaylor
29K →32
3.82ERA →3.71
1.27WHIP →1.24
3–6W ←1–2
2–4SV1–5
Current Season
PJCategoryTaylor
18K ←17
3.20ERA ←4.15
1.46WHIP ←1.57
3W ←1
2SV2
What Each Player's System Trusts
PJ Poulin
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.232 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 6.14 is 2.94 above the ERA — regression coming
Taylor Rogers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.361 elevated and unstable — the 5.33 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.42 is +0.32 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
PJ Poulin: 29 K / 3.82 ERA. Taylor Rogers: 32 K / 3.71 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).