Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryPaul
71K →109
4.76ERA →2.49
1.37WHIP →1.07
5–11W →6–12
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryPaul
39K →75
4.20ERA →2.89
1.47WHIP →0.86
5W →6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Civale
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.12 +1.02 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 16% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Paul Skenes
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.49, 1.61 below league — production is earned
Aaron Civale: 71 K / 4.76 ERA. Paul Skenes: 109 K / 2.49 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).