Rest of Season Projection
AroldisCategoryBen
53K →67
3.70ERA →2.80
1.24WHIP →1.19
0–0W →1–4
16–29SV ←1–2
Current Season
AroldisCategoryBen
25K →53
0.48ERA ←1.92
0.86WHIP ←0.93
0W →2
12SV ←1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aroldis Chapman
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.220 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.97 is 2.51 above the ERA — regression coming
Ben Brown
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.231 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.80 is 1.06 above the ERA — regression coming
Aroldis Chapman: 53 K / 3.70 ERA. Ben Brown: 67 K / 2.80 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).