Rest of Season Projection
BlakeCategoryLawrence
4HR →9
36R ←32
7RBI →27
7SB →8
.219AVG →.224
Current Season
BlakeCategoryLawrence
1HR →3
10R →17
2RBI →14
2SB →4
.269AVG ←.164
What Each Player's System Trusts
Blake Dunn
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.353 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.263 is 0.053 below the surface — regression coming
Lawrence Butler
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.210 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Blake Dunn: 4 HR / 36 R. Lawrence Butler: 9 HR / 32 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).