Rest of Season Projection
BryceCategoryTyler
60K →94
4.08ERA →4.05
1.30WHIP ←1.38
2–5W ←1–2
0SV0
Current Season
BryceCategoryTyler
20K →57
1.71ERA ←6.04
0.86WHIP ←1.54
1W1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Bryce Miller
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.226 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 1.83 is 0.50 above the ERA — regression coming
Tyler Mahle
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.05 sits 0.05 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.335 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Bryce Miller: 61 K / 4.08 ERA. Tyler Mahle: 95 K / 4.04 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).