Rest of Season Projection
CalebCategoryJosé
38K →52
3.72ERA →3.70
1.25WHIP →1.24
2–4W ←1–3
3–6SV ←1–3
Current Season
CalebCategoryJosé
29K ←26
3.81ERA ←5.59
1.15WHIP ←1.81
2W ←1
3SV ←1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Caleb Kilian
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.215 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.13 is 0.55 above the ERA — regression coming
José Alvarado
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.426 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Caleb Kilian: 38 K / 3.72 ERA. José Alvarado: 52 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).