Rest of Season Projection
CarterCategoryWill
9HR →13
37R37
42RBI ←39
0SB0
.183AVG →.271
Current Season
CarterCategoryWill
7HR ←6
23R ←22
26RBI ←23
0SB0
.223AVG →.250
What Each Player's System Trusts
Carter Jensen
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.268 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Will Smith
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.272 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Carter Jensen: 9 HR / 37 R. Will Smith: 13 HR / 37 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).