Rest of Season Projection
CaseyCategoryPaul
76K →109
3.74ERA →2.49
1.27WHIP →1.07
2–5W →6–12
0SV0
Current Season
CaseyCategoryPaul
49K →75
2.27ERA ←2.89
0.97WHIP →0.86
2W →6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Casey Mize
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.264 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.66 is 0.39 above the ERA — regression coming
Paul Skenes
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.49, 1.61 below league — production is earned
Casey Mize: 76 K / 3.74 ERA. Paul Skenes: 109 K / 2.49 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).