Rest of Season Projection
CaseyCategoryRanger
79K →87
3.73ERA →3.62
1.27WHIP1.27
2–5W ←2–4
0SV0
Current Season
CaseyCategoryRanger
49K →57
2.27ERA ←3.38
0.97WHIP ←1.16
2W2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Casey Mize
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.264 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.64 is 0.37 above the ERA — regression coming
Ranger Suarez
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.62, 0.48 below league — production is earned
Casey Mize: 80 K / 3.73 ERA. Ranger Suarez: 89 K / 3.61 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).