Rest of Season Projection
ChrisCategoryTyler
73K →94
4.50ERA →4.05
1.42WHIP →1.38
0–0W →1–2
0SV0
Current Season
ChrisCategoryTyler
35K →57
6.90ERA →6.04
1.71WHIP →1.54
0W →1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chris Paddack
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.352 elevated and unstable — the 7.17 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.71 is +0.61 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
Tyler Mahle
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.05 sits 0.05 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.335 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Chris Paddack: 75 K / 4.49 ERA. Tyler Mahle: 95 K / 4.04 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).