Rest of Season Projection
FernandoCategoryJosé
47K ←45
3.67ERA ←3.70
1.25WHIP →1.24
2–7W ←1–3
0SV →1–3
Current Season
FernandoCategoryJosé
30K ←26
2.19ERA ←5.59
1.30WHIP ←1.81
3W ←1
0SV →1
What Each Player's System Trusts
Fernando Cruz
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.266 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.99 is 1.15 above the ERA — regression coming
José Alvarado
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.44 sits 0.66 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.424 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Fernando Cruz: 49 K / 3.67 ERA. José Alvarado: 46 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).