Rest of Season Projection
GerritCategorySpencer
100K ←97
4.10ERA ←4.65
1.30WHIP ←1.43
4–9W →10–21
0SV0
Current Season
GerritCategorySpencer
12K →43
0.00ERA ←1.34
0.71WHIP ←1.13
1W →7
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Gerrit Cole
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.191 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.48 is 0.48 above the ERA — regression coming
Spencer Arrighetti
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.229 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.95 is 3.01 above the ERA — regression coming
Gerrit Cole: 100 K / 4.10 ERA. Spencer Arrighetti: 97 K / 4.65 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).