Rest of Season Projection
JarrenCategoryTroy
12HR ←8
44R ←38
50RBI ←41
15SB ←5
.217AVG →.297
Current Season
JarrenCategoryTroy
10HR ←2
29R ←23
33RBI ←25
10SB ←3
.219AVG →.312
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jarren Duran
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.304)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Troy Johnston
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.404 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.330 is 0.033 below the surface — regression coming
Jarren Duran: 12 HR / 44 R. Troy Johnston: 8 HR / 38 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).