Rest of Season Projection
LuinderCategoryTyler
50K ←23
3.76ERA →3.61
1.27WHIP →1.25
1–3W ←1–2
0SV →2–3
Current Season
LuinderCategoryTyler
25K ←16
4.44ERA →2.36
1.71WHIP →1.13
1W1
0SV →2
What Each Player's System Trusts
Luinder Avila
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.356 elevated and unstable — the 6.19 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.82 is +0.72 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
Tyler Rogers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.240 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.26 is 0.35 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Luinder Avila: 50 K / 3.76 ERA. Tyler Rogers: 23 K / 3.61 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).