Rest of Season Projection
LukeCategoryMark
36K ←34
3.68ERA ←3.72
1.24WHIP1.24
2–4W ←0–0
0SV →4–7
Current Season
LukeCategoryMark
25K25
2.77ERA ←5.47
1.04WHIP ←1.46
2W ←0
0SV →4
What Each Player's System Trusts
Luke Weaver
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.225 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.26 is 0.86 above the ERA — regression coming
Mark Leiter Jr.
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.24 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.351 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Luke Weaver: 36 K / 3.68 ERA. Mark Leiter Jr.: 34 K / 3.72 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).