Rest of Season Projection
OneilCategoryTroy
19HR ←8
63R ←38
61RBI ←41
28SB ←5
.242AVG →.295
Current Season
OneilCategoryTroy
13HR ←2
42R ←23
41RBI ←25
19SB ←3
.255AVG →.312
What Each Player's System Trusts
Oneil Cruz
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.353, +0.038 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 35% is stable and high — caps the floor
Troy Johnston
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.399 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.329 is 0.030 below the surface — regression coming
Oneil Cruz: 19 HR / 63 R. Troy Johnston: 8 HR / 38 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).