MLB Daily DeltaWeek 13 · June 19, 2026
Portrait of Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola
PHI · P
Change to
Matt Waldron
SD · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 22. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Aaron Nola wins 2 (K, W); Matt Waldron wins 2 (ERA, WHIP); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Aaron Nola
92.2
Matt Waldron
91.9
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Aaron Nola
11.4%
Matt Waldron
8.8%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Aaron Nola
23.0%
Matt Waldron
20.0%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Aaron Nola
32.2%
Matt Waldron
31.7%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Aaron Nola
38.8%
Matt Waldron
39.2%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Aaron Nola
9.3%
Matt Waldron
7.6%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Aaron Nola
.327
Matt Waldron
.306
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Aaron Nola
2.338.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.55
4.29
Matt Waldron
2.338.25
lg xERA 4.10
now 8.49
4.09
WHIPlower is better
Aaron Nola
1.141.87
now 1.39
1.34
Matt Waldron
1.141.87
now 1.71
1.30

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Aaron Nola
40125.60
now 64
96
Matt Waldron
40125.60
now 22
63
Winshigher is better
Aaron Nola
.0008
now 3
36
Matt Waldron
.0008
now 1
24

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · leans sellAaron Nola — hold.conf 0.60
Buy LowMatt Waldron — buy low. The dip is a window to acquire.conf 0.90
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