Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryRiley
10HR →16
49R ←48
40RBI →44
7SB ←2
.302AVG ←.274
Current Season
BrandonCategoryRiley
5HR5
29R →31
24RBI →28
4SB ←1
.317AVG ←.309
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Marsh
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.407 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.335 is 0.032 below the surface — regression coming
Riley Greene
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.360, +0.045 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 28% is stable and high — caps the floor
Marsh projects for .302 AVG / 10 HR vs Greene .274 / 16 HR. Sell-high verdict for Marsh, buy for Greene—the power differential dictates the call.