Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategorySpencer
10HR →13
49R →54
40RBI ←33
7SB ←5
.302AVG ←.274
Current Season
BrandonCategorySpencer
5HR →7
29R →34
24RBI ←21
4SB ←3
.317AVG ←.272
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Marsh
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.407 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.335 is 0.032 below the surface — regression coming
Spencer Steer
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.377, +0.062 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Brandon Marsh: 10 HR / 49 R. Spencer Steer: 13 HR / 54 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).