Rest of Season Projection
BrandonCategoryTroy
10HR ←8
48R ←38
40RBI →41
7SB ←5
.306AVG ←.297
Current Season
BrandonCategoryTroy
5HR ←2
29R ←23
24RBI →25
4SB ←3
.317AVG ←.312
What Each Player's System Trusts
Brandon Marsh
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.339, +0.024 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Troy Johnston
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.404 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.330 is 0.033 below the surface — regression coming
Brandon Marsh: 10 HR / 48 R. Troy Johnston: 8 HR / 38 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).