MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 29, 2026
Portrait of Caleb Ferguson
Caleb Ferguson
CIN · P
Change to
Portrait of Louis Varland
Louis Varland
TOR · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Louis Varland.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — ERA, WHIP, wins, and saves.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV

Louis Varland wins 4 categories (ERA, WHIP, W, SV); Caleb Ferguson wins 1 (K).

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
92.4
Louis Varland
98.6
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
9.5%
Louis Varland
15.3%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
21.3%
Louis Varland
35.3%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Caleb Ferguson
30.7%
Louis Varland
36.7%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
33.3%
Louis Varland
34.7%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
4.8%
Louis Varland
2.5%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Caleb Ferguson
.296
Louis Varland
.217
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Caleb Ferguson
25.18
lg xERA 4.10
now 0.00
3.70
Louis Varland
25.18
lg xERA 4.10
now 0.29
1.96
WHIPlower is better
Caleb Ferguson
.9001.50
now 0.60
1.24
Louis Varland
.9001.50
now 1.03
1.08

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
4056.40
now 6
26
Louis Varland
4056.40
now 42
22
Winshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
.0002.80
now 0
00
Louis Varland
.0002.80
now 2
12
Saveshigher is better
Caleb Ferguson
.00011.20
now 0
0
Louis Varland
.00011.20
now 8
47
If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeCaleb Ferguson — hold.conf 0.50
BuyLouis Varland — buy.conf 0.92
Tweet