Rest of Season Projection
JakeCategoryTroy
5HR →8
38R38
47RBI ←41
19SB ←5
.254AVG →.297
Current Season
JakeCategoryTroy
4HR ←2
20R →23
25RBI25
10SB ←3
.288AVG →.312
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jake McCarthy
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.319)
Troy Johnston
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.404 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.330 is 0.033 below the surface — regression coming
Jake McCarthy: 5 HR / 38 R. Troy Johnston: 8 HR / 38 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).