Rest of Season Projection
TroyCategoryTyler
28K →94
4.10ERA →4.05
1.30WHIP ←1.38
4–8W ←1–2
0SV0
Current Season
TroyCategoryTyler
4K →57
1.42ERA ←6.04
0.95WHIP ←1.54
1W1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Troy Melton
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.197 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.31 is 1.50 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Tyler Mahle
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.05 sits 0.05 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.335 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Troy Melton: 29 K / 4.10 ERA. Tyler Mahle: 95 K / 4.04 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).