Rest of Season Projection
AroldisCategoryGregory
53K ←44
3.70ERA →3.62
1.24WHIP1.24
0–0W →4–9
16–30SV ←8–14
Current Season
AroldisCategoryGregory
25K →32
0.48ERA ←1.95
0.86WHIP →0.76
0W →4
12SV ←7
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aroldis Chapman
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.231 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.95 is 2.47 above the ERA — regression coming
Gregory Soto
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.54)
Aroldis Chapman: 53 K / 3.70 ERA. Gregory Soto: 44 K / 3.62 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).