Rest of Season Projection
DavidCategoryLawrence
6HR →9
33R ←32
22RBI →27
0SB →8
.193AVG →.224
Current Season
DavidCategoryLawrence
3HR3
12R →17
8RBI →14
0SB →4
.259AVG ←.164
What Each Player's System Trusts
David Fry
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.360 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.280 is 0.067 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Lawrence Butler
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.210 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
David Fry: 6 HR / 33 R. Lawrence Butler: 9 HR / 32 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).