Daily MLB intelligence for fantasy and rotisserie players.
Who to buy, who to sell — the signal under the surface stats.
Today
Today in the Delta
390 verdict changes today: Steven Okert moves from hold to sell-high. 161 calls turned more bullish (Erick Fedde) and 181 more bearish (Carlos Rodón). The sharpest buy-low remains José Alvarado: stable skill the surface line hasn't caught up to.
Power Rankings
Top 10 Bats (xwOBA)
| # | Player | Team | xwOBA | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yordan Alvarez | HOU | .442 | Buy |
| 2 | Juan Soto | NYM | .411 | Buy |
| 3 | James Wood | WSH | .403 | Buy |
| 4 | Pete Alonso | BAL | .402 | Buy |
| 5 | Shohei Ohtani | LAD | .397 | Buy |
| 6 | Aaron Judge | NYY | .396 | Buy |
| 7 | Will Smith | LAD | .389 | Buy |
| 8 | Mike Trout | LAA | .381 | Buy |
| 9 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | .379 | Buy |
| 10 | Bryce Harper | PHI | .379 | Buy |
Top 10 Arms (xERA)
| # | Player | Team | xERA | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason Miller | SD | 1.70 | Buy |
| 2 | Jhoan Duran | PHI | 2.06 | Buy |
| 3 | Jacob Misiorowski | MIL | 2.13 | Buy |
| 4 | Adrian Morejon | SD | 2.34 | Buy |
| 5 | Bradgley Rodriguez | SD | 2.37 | Buy |
| 6 | Louis Varland | TOR | 2.37 | Buy |
| 7 | Juan Morillo | AZ | 2.45 | Buy |
| 8 | Edgardo Henriquez | LAD | 2.47 | Buy |
| 9 | Max Fried | NYY | 2.51 | Buy |
| 10 | Mason Montgomery | PIT | 2.53 | Buy |
Boards
LeadersBatters
- 1Freddie FreemanLADContact skill still above league — Freeman at .363 xwOBA.
- 2Mike TroutLAABarrels still elite despite the whiffs — Trout at .381 xwOBA.
- 3Bryce HarperPHIContact quality carries a .379 xwOBA — Harper, no luck needed.
- 4Aaron JudgeNYYContact quality off the charts — Judge at .396 xwOBA.
- 5Pete AlonsoBALContact quality outpacing the results — Alonso .402 xwOBA.
LeadersPitchers
- 1Zack WheelerPHIAce velo with a 2.88 xERA — Wheeler is real.
- 2Jacob deGromTEXAce skill buried under a 4.21 ERA — deGrom at 3.47 xERA.
- 3Kyle HartSDUnderperforming his own stuff — Hart at 3.65 xERA.
- 4Tyler GlasnowLADUnderlying 2.88 xERA outshining a 3.53 ERA — Glasnow.
- 5Max FriedNYYAce skill backed by .246 xwOBA allowed — Fried.
Buy-LowBatters
- 1Ke'Bryan HayesCINContact quality says the .155 BABIP is the lie — Hayes .287 xwOBA.
Buy-LowPitchers
- 1Gabriel HughesCOLHughes is better than his 6.33 ERA says — 3.92 xERA.
- 2Brady BassoATHA .373 BABIP is burying a 3.98 xERA — Basso's real gap is 2.09 runs.
- 3Jack PerkinsATHTwo runs of bad luck baked in — Perkins 4.09 xERA
- 4José AlvaradoPHILuck drowning a live arm — Alvarado's real ERA is 4.12.
- 5Bryan KingHOUKing's 5.19 ERA oversells the damage — xERA just 4.09.
PretendersBatters
- 1Adael AmadorCOLContact luck can't hide a 91-point wOBA mirage — Amador
- 2Joshua Kuroda-GrauerATHRiding a .417 BABIP, not his bat — Kuroda-Grauer's .392 wOBA
- 3Alika WilliamsATHSoft contact padding the line — Williams' xwOBA just .248.
- 4Nick AllenHOUContact luck propping up a 26.9% hard-hit bat — Allen's real xwOBA .246.
- 5Eduardo ValenciaDETBABIP propping up his line — Valencia's .433 wOBA hides .372 xwOBA.
PretendersPitchers
- 1Yerry De los SantosNYYLuck propping up a thin strikeout profile — De los Santos 2.04 ERA vs 4.79 xERA.
- 2Robert SuarezATLHis 1.06 ERA is a .240 BABIP illusion — Suarez.
- 3Paul BlackburnNYYWinning on a .230 BABIP, not stuff — Blackburn's 3.68 xERA
- 4Gordon GraceffoSTLLuck propping up a 2.67 — Graceffo's real ERA is 4.60.
- 5George KlassenLAALuck shaving nearly two runs off — Klassen's real ERA 5.58.
LosersBatters
- 1Christian VázquezHOUContact too soft to survive — Vázquez at .233 xwOBA.
- 2Christian KossSFContact too soft to survive — Koss at .235 xwOBA.
- 3Tyler HeinemanLAAContact too soft to survive — Heineman at .236 xwOBA.
- 4Noelvi MarteCINWell short of league contact — Marte at .237 xwOBA.
LosersPitchers
- 1Zac GallenAZStrikeouts dried up to 13.6% — Gallen's xERA sits at 6.64.
- 2Nick LodoloCINLuck flattering a broken profile — Lodolo's 6.47 xERA
- 3Merrill KellyAZLucky to sit at 4.94 — Kelly's 6.35 xERA says worse
- 4Tomoyuki SuganoCOLHitters teeing off on 14.6% K-rate — Sugano at 6.35 xERA.
- 5Brady SingerCINStrikeout stuff is gone — Singer at 5.99 xERA