Daily MLB intelligence for fantasy and rotisserie players.
Who to buy, who to sell — the signal under the surface stats.
Today
Alvarado's Ugly ERA Is Hiding a Live Arm
José Alvarado's 5.40 ERA is a lie — the luck-free xERA of 3.84 sits just below league average, and the .368 BABIP against him is still noise at 142 balls in play. The fastball is no fluke: 97.2 mph on 993 pitches, a signal-cleared weapon that says the stuff is intact. The ERA overstates the damage; the skill underneath is rosterable. Buy the dip before the surface catches up.
Power Rankings
Top 10 Bats (xwOBA)
| # | Player | Team | xwOBA | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yordan Alvarez | HOU | .447 | Buy |
| 2 | Juan Soto | NYM | .419 | Buy |
| 3 | James Wood | WSH | .416 | Buy |
| 4 | Aaron Judge | NYY | .411 | Buy |
| 5 | Shohei Ohtani | LAD | .399 | Buy |
| 6 | Pete Alonso | BAL | .394 | Buy |
| 7 | Bryce Harper | PHI | .391 | Buy |
| 8 | Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | .385 | Buy |
| 9 | Miguel Vargas | CWS | .383 | Buy |
| 10 | Will Smith | LAD | .379 | Buy Low |
Top 10 Arms (xERA)
| # | Player | Team | xERA | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason Miller | SD | 1.48 | Buy |
| 2 | Bradgley Rodriguez | SD | 2.08 | Buy |
| 3 | Jacob Misiorowski | MIL | 2.09 | Buy |
| 4 | Jhoan Duran | PHI | 2.11 | Buy |
| 5 | Louis Varland | TOR | 2.28 | Buy |
| 6 | Adrian Morejon | SD | 2.32 | Buy |
| 7 | Edgardo Henriquez | LAD | 2.35 | Buy |
| 8 | Juan Morillo | AZ | 2.47 | Buy |
| 9 | Dylan Lee | ATL | 2.47 | Buy |
| 10 | Jacob Latz | TEX | 2.51 | Sell High |
Boards
LeadersBatters
- 1Freddie FreemanLADContact skill outpacing the league — Freeman at .369 xwOBA.
- 2Mike TroutLAABarreling 15.6% of contact — Trout's xwOBA sits at .375.
- 3Bryce HarperPHIContact quality never in doubt — Harper at .391 xwOBA.
- 4Aaron JudgeNYYStill the hardest contact in the game — Judge at .411 xwOBA.
LeadersPitchers
- 1Zack WheelerPHIAce-level whiff and weak contact — Wheeler at 3.03 xERA.
- 2Jacob deGromTEXStill missing bats at 97 — deGrom, 3.54 xERA.
- 3Kyle HartSDSkill hidden under a .78-run ERA gap — Hart at 3.34 xERA.
- 4Tyler GlasnowLADMiss bats, suppress contact — Glasnow at 2.64 xERA.
- 5Max FriedNYYSkill outpitching the earned runs — Fried at 2.53 xERA.
Buy-LowBatters
- 1Ke'Bryan HayesCINLuck 97 points behind his contact — Hayes at .305 xwOBA.
- 2Will SmithLADBarrels say the power is real — Smith's .379 xwOBA.
Buy-LowPitchers
- 1Jack PerkinsATHLuck buried a real arm — Perkins' 2.47-run ERA gap.
- 2José AlvaradoPHILuck drowning a live arm — Alvarado's .368 BABIP against.
- 3Grant WolframBALLuck tax on a .349 BABIP — Wolfram's xERA sits at 3.49.
- 4Connor PrielippMINPitching better than the ERA shows — Prielipp's 4.11 xERA.
- 5Andrew MorrisMINTrue form is 3.13, not 4.07 — Morris is unlucky.
PretendersBatters
- 1Alex JacksonMINA .465 BABIP is doing all the work — Jackson's real xwOBA is .223.
- 2Alika WilliamsATHEmpty .313 wOBA propped by a .239 xwOBA — Williams fools no one.
- 3Brock RoddenSEALuck inflating a punchless bat — Rodden's real wOBA is .235.
- 4Cody FreemanTEXLuck carrying a 1.4% barrel bat — Freeman's xwOBA .230.
- 5Héctor RodríguezCINHot streak built on whiffs — Rodríguez's real wOBA is .277.
PretendersPitchers
- 1Tyler SchweitzerCWSBailed out by a .274 BABIP — Schweitzer's real ERA is 5.32.
- 2Paul BlackburnNYYA .225 BABIP is doing the heavy lifting — Blackburn's real ERA is 3.54.
- 3Gordon GraceffoSTLRiding a .207 BABIP — Graceffo's real ERA is 4.50.
- 4Eduardo RodriguezAZAce facade propped up by a .269 BABIP — xERA 4.32.
- 5Taylor ClarkeAZSmoke and mirrors minus the smoke — Clarke's .207 BABIP hides a 4.20 xERA.
LosersBatters
- 1Brenton DoyleCWSSwing-and-miss bat with nothing behind it — Doyle at .234 xwOBA.
- 2Christian VázquezHOUPunchless catcher — Vázquez at .238 xwOBA.
- 3Tyler HeinemanLAANo hard contact anywhere — Heineman at 12% hard-hit.
LosersPitchers
- 1Tomoyuki SuganoCOLStrikeouts wiped out, contact crushed — Sugano at 6.80 xERA.
- 2Merrill KellyAZStrikeout stuff gone — Kelly's xERA sits at 6.71.
- 3Zac GallenAZStrikeouts vanished — Gallen's 6.59 xERA is no fluke.
- 4Nick LodoloCINLuck masking a broken profile — Lodolo's true 6.42 xERA.
- 5Michael LorenzenTORCan't miss bats at 14.6% K — Lorenzen's 6.02 xERA is real.